Table of Contents

Economic Review & Forecast
Management Minute
Feature Article
Legal Corner

Scotia Bank Group, Global Economic Research

Duration, Not Depth

We now expect U.S. output growth to average only 1.1% in 2008, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from our last forecast. The slower growth rate this year drags down the expected advance in 2009 by 0.1 percentage points to 1.7%.

Our view remains that the severity of the current U.S. setback will be measured in terms of duration, not the depth of the downturn. Despite the significant contraction in housing-related activity and the sharp retrenchment underway in consumer spending, the continuing improvement in net trade is providing an effective offset to the meaningful deterioration in domestic demand. But the key differentiation between prior ‘V-shaped’ end-of-cycles and the current one is the lengthy period of convalescence as Americans unwind their exceptional leverage, and businesses readjust to lower profit and expenditure trajectories. Reinforcing this longer adjustment phase is the ailing financial sector that must recapitalize its balance sheets.

In this environment, the inflationary spillover from high energy and food costs will be muted by the growing excess capacity freed up by slower growth, competitive pricing, and increasing joblessness. Look for the Fed to trim its bellwether funds rate another percentage point (50 bps each at its April 30th and June 25th FOMC meetings) to 1.25% by the end of Q2, a development that will lead to a further steepening of the yield curve. Monetary officials are expected to keep borrowing costs low over the next year to underpin the recovery process. A renewed tightening in the second half of 2009 will likely raise the Fed funds rate 75 bps to 2% by the end of next year.

The period of U.S. dollar depreciation has not yet ended. Intensifying economic weakness, compounded by the persistent strains in the financial sector in the wake of the sub-prime mortgage crisis, suggests that the greenback will remain under intermittent downward pressure for the foreseeable future. Encouraging improvements to net trade will provide only a partial offset to the further weakening in consumer spending and business investment. Furthermore, the continuing process of global asset diversification will add to the selling pressure on the U.S. dollar.

Although estimates for overall real GDP growth in Canada were left unchanged for this year and next, we have made some further changes to the underlying components of growth. Domestic spending has remained quite robust, a function of firm labour markets, lower retail prices stemming from the strong loonie, solid construction activity supported by expanded government infrastructure expenditures, and continued gains in service sector activity across the country. At the same time, the erosion in net trade has accelerated due to the steepening turndown in U.S. demand, the ongoing slowdown in domestic manufacturing activity, and lingering competitive issues, including the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar.

We continue to expect that the Bank of Canada will lower interest rates pre-emptively. The financial turmoil roiling global capital markets poses considerable downside risks to overall domestic growth, especially with the Canadian dollar hovering around parity with the U.S. dollar. Look for the central bank to cut the overnight rate another 75 bps by the end of Q2 (50 bps and 25 bps, respectively, at the April 22nd and June 10th rate setting meetings).

Scotia Capital Economics
From the Global Economic Research Market Trends Newsletter
Printed with Permission
http://www.scotiacapital.com/English/bns_econ/bnsmt.pd

Planning
The Portable Mentor

by Cy Charney, President, Charney & Associates Inc.

Within all of us there is an elusive melody which when heard and followed will lead us to the fulfillment of our fondest dreams.
- SIEGRIED AND ROY

Planning is the conscious process that enables us to decide how to go from where we are to where we want to be.

1. Planning helps us:

• Define our goals;
• Decide to make changes;
• Know what to change and when to make the changes;
• Measure our progress;
• Identify roadblocks that might prevent us from being successful.

2. A proper plan brings with it benefits, which include having:

• A direction to follow;
• A clarification of the road ahead;
• A coordinated effort to reach a goal.

3. Many people fail to plan because:

• The process requires them to commit themselves to action;
• They have a fear of failure;
• The plan is leading them into unfamiliar territory, which may unnerve them;
• They lack the ability to visualize anything better;
• They have a history of unfinished tasks and are afraid to go down the same road yet again;
• They feel an inability to be more spontaneous.

4. There are a number of steps to take in developing a plan:

• Decide what you want. Close your eyes and picture yourself and your situation in the ideal, completed state.
• Write down what it is you want.
• Evaluate where you are. Be realistic. Answer these questions:
  • What is happening now?
  • Who is influencing the situation?
  • When do these problems occur?
  • Where am I now?
  • Why am I in this situation?
  • How are things currently being done?
• Assess how large the gap is between your existing situation and what it is that you want to achieve.
• Identify any roadblocks that will prevent you from being successful. Categorize these roadblocks as follows:
1. Class I – You have full control to deal with them.
2. Class 2 – You have partial control to deal with them, and so you may need some help.
3. Class 3- You have no control and are most unlikely to remove this roadblock.
• Evaluate your changes of success. As long as the obstacles are of the Class 1 and 2 types, you should be able to succeed. However, tackling goals that have Class 3 roadblocks can lead to failure at worst or only partial success at best. Be realistic. Modify your goals or abandon the project.

5. Get help to overcome Class 2 roadblocks. Don’t try to deal with them yourself.

6. Identify the major milestones that will lead you to your goal. Set them out in the order they should take.

7. Decide on and document the minor steps you need to take.

8. Set target dates for major milestones and minor actions. 

9. Prioritize key actions that will lead you to your goal.

10. Document your plan. Use one of a variety of methods such as pert charges, Gantt charts, or action plans.

11. Review your plan with others who have been on the same path that you intend to travel.

12. Take the first step to achieve your goal. Reward yourself for starting.

13. Monitor your plan to make sure you are achieving each milestone on the way to ultimate success.

Cy Charney, President of Charney & Associates. (905-886-5606, www.askcharney.com), is a leading Canadian management consultant focusing on organizational performance improvement. The above is an excerpt from his book, The Portable Mentor, published by Stoddart.

Great Managers Lead Differently

by Dr. Alfred M. Coke

Great managers get repeatable real time results by doing things differently than conventional wisdom. This article defines how great managers use what we know but refuse to practice. This select group of managers walks a different path that often defies the conventional wisdom of current business practices. While others wish for success great managers achieve it. Their model is not a huge secret and can be easily defined and described.

First: Give mission type orders. The best way to maximize management time and get good results is to give people a tasking statement then get out of their way. Great managers explain what they want in terms of results. They are not interested in how the employee accomplishes the task as long as it fits the corporate system of policies and procedures. This frees up the manager to spend more time giving mission type orders to other employees. The manager is not tied to developing details so more situations can be dealt with in the course of a day.

Second: Encourage people to use their talents. Great managers start by surrounding themselves with talent. They believe the key is finding good talent then using it to the fullest. By stating what needs to be accomplished rather than how to do it, the manager is encouraging employees to use their talent to find creative solutions. This in turn encourages risk taking, builds confidence, and promotes professional growth.
 
Third: Allow space to operate. Looking over a worker’s shoulder limits work being done. Great managers allow sufficient space for a person to complete the task without it becoming limiting. This doesn’t mean the manager never checks progress. A simple rule to remember is; while people need room to operate, even adults need adult supervision.
 
Fourth: Measure results not activity. A busy person is not always an effective person. Great managers talk in terms of specific, measurable outcomes. They communicate clear, tough objectives. They eliminate subjective elements from performance reports. If it cannot be measured in desirable, quantifiable terms then it serves no performance purpose. Just doing good and staying busy is not acceptable to them.

Fifth: Reward results. Great managers know the value of both tangible and intrinsic rewards. Tangible rewards are usually the product of the organization’s recognition program. Great managers deploy these tools rather well. However, their true strength lies in dispensing intrinsic rewards such as public recognition and an occasional thank you.

Sixth: Remove non-performers. The single greatest heat loss of organization efficiency is the failure to remove marginal performers. Great managers do not tolerate a team member who is not carrying his or her share of the workload. Removing non-performers removes the organization’s performance handicap.

In Summary

Learn from leaders who are in the 2% of high performers. They don’t follow conventional wisdom or lethargic business practices. Great managers are successful because they know how to make maximum use of their most important resources the talents of human capital.

Dr. Al Coke is a seasoned professional with over 40 years of leading, managing, training, teaching, and consulting across a wide range of businesses, industries, and countries.

Published with permission from Dr. Alfred M. Coke www.dralcoke.com

Evidence with respect to medical matters

by Yosie Saint-Cyr, LL.B. Managing Editor at HR Infodesk.com---Canada Payroll and Employment News

• The expected duration of the absence, 
  
• The date the employee was seen by a healthcare professional, and 
  
• Whether the patient was examined in person by the healthcare professional issuing the certificate.

• The duration of the leave. For example, it may not be reasonable, depending on all of the circumstances, for an employer to require an employee who was away from work for only one day with a cold to provide a doctor's note. 
  
• Whether there is a pattern of absences or a record of absenteeism. For example, if an employee claims to be ill and takes a personal emergency leave every Friday afternoon in the summer, it may be reasonable for the employer to require some proof of the illness even though the leave is of short duration. 
  
• Whether any evidence is available. For example, an employer did not ask an employee who was on medically related personal emergency leave for a doctor's note until after the employee had returned to work. If the employee is no longer ill at that point it may be impossible for him or her to get any evidence of the illness. 
  
• Where evidence is available, but only with some difficulty, whether it is reasonable to expect the employee to obtain the evidence. (See Tilbury Assembly Ltd. And United Auto Workers, Local 251) 
  
• The cost of the evidence. For example, it may not be reasonable, depending on all of the circumstances, for an employer to require an employee who earns minimum wage to obtain a doctor's note if the doctor charges the employee $25 for it. 
  
• The employee had earlier asked for the time off for non-emergency leave reasons for the time at which the absence occurred but was denied. 
  
• The employee had announced plans in advance to miss work (unless the reason the employee actually missed work falls within subsection 50 (1)
  
  1. A personal illness, injury or medical emergency.
  2. The death, illness, injury or medical emergency of an individual described in the definition in subsection (2).
  3. An urgent matter that concerns an individual described in the definition in subsection (2).

1. The employee's spouse.
2. A parent, step-parent or foster parent of the employee or the employee's spouse.
3. A child, step-child or foster child of the employee or the employee's spouse.
4. A grandparent, step-grandparent, grandchild or step-grandchild of the employee or of the employee's spouse.
5. The spouse of a child of the employee.
6. The employee's brother or sister.
7. A relative of the employee who is dependent on the employee for care or assistance.

By Yosie Saint-Cyr, LL.B., Managing Editor at HRinfodesk.com

Published on HRinfodesk---Canadian Payroll and Employment Law News and Developments

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Technical & Logistics

Director of Supply Chain Management - MBA , CPIM:

This individual has strong Global leadership experience in the USA, Canada and Asia Pacific.  Strong experience  working  with Fortune 500 Companies in the utilities, pharmaceutical and chemical businesses.  He has been instrumental in implementing  2 separate  SAP systems and re engineered a distribution Cold Chain management technology to reduce product loss from $3 Million per year to close to Zero. 

This Star Candidate has also set up new metrics and KPIs within supply chain and set up cross-functional teams with supply, operations and finance.  This individual established and launched a global sales and operations planning process which includes capability and supply review. This Star Candidate has an unique combination of strong leadership with a very strong process oriented background. 

Interested? Please contact:
Silvio Rossi, CPC, Vice President

Professional Engineer:

We are currently representing a professional engineer with extensive experience in the utility/power energy sector.  He is a passionate, focused and highly strategic Senior Project Manager.  If your organization isn’t afraid to add someone who will challenge the existing climate in order to create change and become best in class then please call Joe Braccia to learn more about his profile. 

Interested? Please contact:
Joe Braccia, Senior Consultant

Sr. Manager:

I am currently representing a Senior Manager of Global Operations for a Fortune 500 company in the area of electronics. He has international experience with a solid track record of Supply Chain development and design.  He has created and managed change on a very large scale.  Armed with a Black Belt and an undergraduate degree he continues to demonstrate strong EQ, strategic vision and roll up your sleeves get the job done enthusiasm.

Interested? Please contact:
Carol Ellen, Consultant